UNITED KINGDOM : A SNAP ELECTION FULL OF SURPRISES

About a year ago, Theresa May unexpectedly became Prime Minister in the wake of the UK’s EU Referendum on 23 June which resulted in a Brexit win, the subsequent resignation of David Cameron as PM – he had campaigned vigorously for the UK to remain in the EU – and the voluntary withdrawal of May’s main Conservative Party contender for the post of PM. Without a democratic mandate, Theresa May was under pressure to call an election. But she vehemently   vouched that she had no intention of doing so. Then, as politicians tend to renege on their promises and pledges, she did a complete U-turn and called a snap election, to be held on 8 June 2017, which took everyone by surprise. That was in April and the Conservatives were well ahead of Labour in the polls, by between 12 to 20 points depending on which poll results you looked at.

But, since the start of the electoral campaign, lots of things happened which made life increasingly more difficult for Theresa May. At the beginning, given the disarray within the Labour Party – internal conflicts which seriously undermine the party with Jeremy Corbyn himself contested as leader – many spoke of a landslide victory for the Conservatives. Now, some are saying that the Conservatives will not have as many seats as they had before the election but that they will nevertheless have a comfortable majority. Others say that Labour and Conservatives are almost neck and neck and that a hung parliament is not to be excluded. With terror attacks twice in London and once in Manchester, security has become a major issue after Brexit, healthcare and the NHS, employment, housing, education, pensions etc.  This may be one reason why the gap between Labour and the Conservatives has been increasing again in the polls.  

If the Conservatives win, it will be a pyrrhic victory for Theresa May personally. We have to remember that she decided to call a snap election because she wanted to strengthen her hand in the UK’s forthcoming Brexit negotiations since Article 50 had been triggered to start the talks which would eventually lead the UK to leave the European Union.  Theresa May wants to have her cake and eat it. She does not like the solidarity principle which lies at the heart of the European project; she does want the UK to have to contribute a lot of money to the EU; she does not like the ‘free movement of people’; she wants to severely restrict immigration and is unclear about the situation of EU migrants in the UK, about their rights etc but she would like to have access to the European Single Market of some 500 million customers.

Brexit is a total mess. In any scenario, EU leaders will be tough and the UK, having chosen Brexit, will have to pay up for previous commitments and the divorce bill could run into tens of billions of euros. Theresa May is very strong on rhetoric. But one can sense that she is aware of the difficulties ahead. She has moved from her customary “Brexit means Brexit” to a government that is “strong and stable”, and now her mantra is “no deal is better than a bad deal”. Though she may not be as erratic and unpredictable as Donald Trump, anything is possible with her. For example, she said that she intended to cap contributions in social care for the elderly who she proposed should pay for more of their social care.  When she was bitterly attacked by critics who called this a “dementia tax”, she made a U-turn and modified this manifesto policy. And she refused to debate her policies publicly with Jeremy Corbyn.

Corbyn’s increasing popularity

In the meantime and in spite of a lot of hostility from certain sections of the media, the Labour leader has been surging in the polls. Corbyn’s popularity went on increasing from one public meeting to another in much the same way as it happened with Bernie Sanders in the United States and Jean-Luc Melenchon/La France insoumise in France. He addressed large audiences made up of people from the working and middle classes, including a lot of young people, up and down the country. These people have suffered the brunt of austerity measures and a lowering of their standard and quality of living because of all the cuts in public services under the Tories and the neo-liberal policies pursued by the Conservative government.

Theresa May seized upon the terror attacks which hit the UK and tried to exploit them for her own benefit. Jeremy Corbyn pointed out that when she was Home Secretary, Theresa May actually cut police numbers by 20,000.  He challenged Theresa May about arms sale to Saudi Arabia, and voters agreed with him that wars led to terrorism.  Thus, a survey for The Independent newspaper found that “three-quarters of people – taking in all age groups, political persuasions and social classes – agreed Britain’s military involvement in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya had increased the risk of terrorist acts.”

Theresa May has dug up a typical threat often made by the Conservatives: to repeal Human Rights legislation as a means of fighting more effectively against potential terrorists. This would not be a move forward but a serious setback. The Human Rights Act 1998 came into being as a transposition of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) into domestic legislation. It is a very important piece of legislation as has so often been said by highly distinguished members of the Judiciary.

Labour has come a long way. It is now so close to power. But if it loses, it would be because of the party’s and Jeremy Corbyn’s stand vis-à-vis the European Union. During the campaign prior to last year’s referendum, Corbyn was rather lukewarm. He did not fight hard enough for the UK to remain in the EU. He’s always been a Eurosceptic. Above anything else, this lack of clarity about the EU and the absence of a serious commitment towards a reformed EU, which then made Brexit possible, would be what would cost Labour victory in today’s election. The latest YouGov poll’s projection suggested the Tories were on course to win 305 seats (below the 326-seat majority), with Labour likely to win 266 seats…

But let’s hope for a miracle. Let’s hope that the polls are wrong.