Weather Forecast : tropical disturbance may damper New Year festivities

Raincoats, umbrellas and lots of precautions will be required on New Year’s Eve and the first day of year 2020. Indeed, according to the probabilistic forecast by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS), there is a high probability that the tropical disturbance near Madagascar and Agalega will influence our weather. 

As indicated by the MMS, The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is very active in the region between Agalega and North Madagascar. Conditions are conducive for the tropical disturbance to further intensify with a tendency to move towards the South. Following this trend, it will come close to and influence the weather over the Mascarenes islands, namely Mauritius, Reunion Island and Rodrigues Island. A marked deterioration of weather is very likely in the course of the weekend.

According to the 7-Day probabilistic forecast, night showers are expected on Saturday 28th December and the sea will be rough beyond the reefs with swells. There will be an easterly wind at about 25km/h with gusts that could reach 50 km/h in exposed areas. Sunday will be mostly showery with isolated thunderstorms. The sea will become very rough beyond reefs with swells and ventures in open seas as well as in the lagoons are not advised. The wind will blow from an East South East direction at about 35km/h with gusts that could reach 75 km/h in exposed areas.

As from Monday 30th December, the weather will deteriorate. Widespread showers are expected. These will be heavy at times with thunderstorms. The wind will blow at an East South East direction at about 45 km/h with gusts that could reach 90km/h. The sea will remain very rough beyond reefs with swells. On New Year’s Eve, widespread showers are again expected. These can also be heavy at times with thunderstorms. Again, with tempestuous ocean waves, venturing in the open sea and lagoons are strongly not advised. 

The Mauritius Meteorological Services is closely monitoring the evolution of the tropical disturbance. In case it will develop into a tropical storm, the meteorological station will issue a cyclone warning as from this weekend.