This report gives an indication of the expected evolution of the 2018-2019 South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) summer - namely, the likely cyclone activity, summer rains and temperatures in Mauritius and Rodrigues.
Extreme Weather and Climate Events
The latest findings of the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 C (SR15) above pre-industrial level confirmed the above observations. As such, it is very likely that similar events in the form of heavy/torrential rainfall leading to flash floods and violent thunderstorm, and explosive intensification of cyclones may occur during the forthcoming summer 2018-2019. Tropical cyclones evolving in the vicinity of the Mascarenes Islands may generate high waves that are likely to reach the shores of the Islands of the Republic of Mauritius.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal during summer 2018-2019. However, on certain days, temperatures will exceed the monthly average by more than two degrees Celsius in some locations. Maximum day temperatures may reach 36 C at Port Louis and along the Western coast during peak summer months.
Above normal temperatures, coupled with prolonged periods of high humidity and light wind conditions, may result in torrid conditions particularly during the months of January to March 2019. The onset of summer rains will most likely be in the second fortnight of December 2018.
During January to March 2019, atmospheric conditions will become conducive to the occurrence of extreme weather events such as torrential rains, flash floods, heat wave and violent thunderstorms.