Mauritius in transition, again!

In a stunning reversal of the political situation in the wake of the 2014 general elections, Dr. Navin Ramgoolam has staged his comeback in his former stronghold. 

What was simply unimaginable some months ago has become a reality on Sunday. Given the current political context, it is a real feat that the Mauritius Labour Party has managed to gather a good crowd in Triolet. It could be that the party had considerable means to organize the gathering but getting people to participate is not that easy. Unless they are die-hards or they simply want to send a strong message to the ruling parties.

RE-EMERGING AS A NATIONAL LEADER 

Incidentally, the Alliance Lepep which had knocked down Dr. Ramgoolam and his then ally, the MMM, at the 2014 general elections is in fact bringing the disgraced politician back in the fold. The indecisiveness and inaction of the government, coupled with internecine wars, has given the required space for Dr. Ramgoolam to re-emerge as a national leader.

The fact that the Prime Minister Sir Anerood Jugnauth has casually announced that he intends to step down and give his seat as Prime Minister to his son, Mr. Pravind Jugnauth, has fuelled the comeback process of the leader of the Labour Party.

The equation is extremely simple. The real challenger of Dr. Ramgoolam is none other than Sir Anerood Jugnauth. This has been proved by the results of the general elections held in 2000 and 2014. In 2005, if Sir Anerood Jugnauth was still leader of the MSM/MMM Alliance, Dr. Navin Ramgoolam would have been defeated. 

In clear, Dr. Ramgoolam does not seem to take Mr Pravind Jugnauth as a serious opponent and challenger at the next general elections. In the likely event that Mr. Pravind Jugnauth steps in as Prime Minister, without the popular plebiscite, it would make things easier for Dr.Ramgoolam.       

The strategy of Dr. Ramgoolam is very clear. In accepting that he has made mistakes in the past and in vowing that he would not repeat these mistakes, he is trying to re-conquer those who had lost faith in him. He also tried to explain the source of the Rs 220 million found in his coffers at Riverwalk. According to him, these were accumulated per diem over his fourteen years of ‘primeministership’ and donations received for the construction of new headquarters for the Labour Party at Guy Rozemont Square in Port Louis.

Dr. Ramgoolam also very cleverly tried to dissociate himself from Mrs Nandanee Soornack, who has won a first leg in the tug-of-war between her and the Mauritian authorities to get her to be extradited to Mauritius. 

The various announcements made by the leader of the Labour Party, like for instance the limitation of the mandate of the Prime Minister to two terms only, the refund of the SC and HSC fees to parents whose children did not record ninety percent of presence at school, and the abolition of the nine-year continuous education project, are populist announcements.

Whether the population will forgive Dr Ramgoolam or not is another story. Local politics is nothing but a musical chair where voters do not have much choice. At the end of the day, changes are synonymous to old wine in new bottles.

Will Dr Ramgoolam be in a position to maintain the momentum till the next general elections? Will he come out victorious in the numerous court cases in which he is allegedly involved? 

PRAVIND JUGNAUTH AT THE PMO 

Coming back to the issue of Mr. Pravind Jugnauth succeeding to his father as Prime Minister, there seems to be no legal issues as practically everybody (including the Leader of the Opposition Mr. Paul Bérenger) agrees that the Constitution provides for this situation.

The critics are mostly aimed at the moral dimension of the exercise. Perhaps if it were somebody else who were made to succeed to Sir Anerood Jugnauth, it would not have this bitter taste of institutionalizing dynastical politics. As it is now, it gives the impression that Mr. Pravind Jugnauth is inheriting a government, and by extension a country.

The leader of the MSM is right in referring to the recent change at the head of the British government whereby Mrs. Theresa May replaced Mr. David Cameron as Prime Minister, in the westministerial tradition.

In India, when Srimati Indira Gandhi was assassinated, his son Rajiv Gandhi was made to replace her as Prime Minister, although he was not even an elected member of the Parliament. It was only later that he contented the vacant seat left by his mother and he won. Dynasty in politics has its emotional dimension but it does at times provide some sort of confidence in voters.

THREE-CORNERED FIGHT UNLIKELY 

It is very unlikely that we are heading at a three-cornered fight at the next general elections although Dr. Ramgoolam has stated so on a number of occasions. The reason is very simple. On Sunday, Dr. Ramgoolam has appealed to the leader of the PMSD to “shoulder his responsibility” and to remind him that Sir Gaëtan Duval (father of Mr. Xavier-Luc Duval and former leader of the PMSD) had the sense of honour. 

When the time comes, we will not be surprised to see the PMSD joining hands with the Labour Party while the MMM, in spite of the repeated statements of the leader of the mauves, could very well team up with the MSM.

The situation within the government, in terms of personal relations between the ministers, seems to be getting worse. A minister has used a very degrading expression against another colleague on Facebook. The social media has become the favourite spot for those at the helm of power to settle their personal scores.

Interesting enough, the MMM and the PMSD are holding events on the same day, i.e on Sunday. The MMM is holding a congress to mark the 47 anniversary of its foundation while the PMSD is convening young persons. The rivalry between the two parties is bound to intensify as they battle for the same bank vote. 

Now there seems to be another issue. Will there be a cabinet reshuffle before Sir Anerood  Jugnauth quits as Prime Minister or will this take place after Mr. Pravind Jugnauth takes over as Prime Minister? What would be the role of Sir Anerood Jugnauth? Will he sit as back bencher or will he be appointed as a Mentor Minister? When will all this happen? The Lepep Alliance does not seem to understand that effective communication is vital in politics and that political transitions are worth planning.