The desire for change

The victory of the Republican candidate Mr. Donald Trump at the presidential election on Wednesday caught the world by surprise. We should draw important lessons from this unpredictable triumph. 

As rightly said by former Mauritian ambassador to New York, Mr. Milan Meetarbhan, the desire of the American people for change was by far stronger than anything else. He was participating in a debate on Radio Plus, hosted by Priscilla Sadien on Wednesday.      

THE RECRUDESCENCE OF POPULISM

Mr.  Meetarbhan also noted insightfully that there is recrudescense of populism in the Western world. “It is not an isolated phenomenon. There was the populism from the right, but also from the left with Bernie Sanders”, he stated.     

Lindsey Collen makes a very interesting analysis on behalf of Lalit. “In fact, the political program of Bernie Sanders, who so nearly won the Democratic Nomination, based on advancing the interests of the whole of a united working class, could have stopped Trump. Even the opinion polls showed it”. Mrs. Collen adds : But, Hillary Clinton’s campaign, built as it was, upon a mixture of communal politics i.e. pulling together people on ethno-religious identity, and proposing the kind of gender politics that wants to see women rise within the patriarchal hierarchies, had no hope.  

Lalit’s spokesperson identifies the reasons for the walkover of Mr. Donald Trump as follows: “But, the backbone of his success is that he has gathered the support of what he, himself, calls “the working class” – which we put in quotation marks because until recently in the USA, it was taboo in mainstream media and academia even to recognize the existence of the working class. And yet it is this economic identity, being part of the class that relies for survival on a job, is the identity that, in the final analysis, counts. He used this to his populist ends, certainly not in the fight for socialism. But, when people are desperate, they follow this kind of appeal, even if it is from a strange quarter, simply because it recognizes their class suffering. Some ended up proudly announcing that they were “deplorables”, thus defying the elitism that Hillary Clinton exudes.”

Interestingly enough, Mrs. Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right Front National party, was one of the first foreign political leaders to congratulate Mr. Donald Trump on his election victory. “Congratulations to the new President of the US, Donald Trump, and the American people – free!” she tweeted as the Republican candidate edged towards the 270 Electoral College votes needed to reach the White House, according to the Independent,

Her father, Front National (FN) founder Jean-Marie Le Pen called Mr. Trump the “President of the People”, adding: “Today, the United States, tomorrow, France. Bravo!”

THE MAURITIAN CONTEXT 

The leader of the Mauritius Labour Party, Dr. Navin Ramgoolam, in a statement to Le Defi Quotidien (issue of Thursday 10 November,2016) compared Mr. Trump’s victory to the what happened at the December,2014 general elections in Mauritius. Dr. Ramgoolam quoted his father, late Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam who used to say that elections are like a Pandora’s box. What come out once the box is opened could take everybody by surprise. 

Dr. Navin Ramgoolam could have been surprised, or perplexed by the results of the December, 2014 general elections, which saw the victory of the Lepep Alliance led by Sir Anerood Jugnauth but the outcome of these elections proved many things. First that in politics, two plus two does not necessarily equal to four. Otherwise two of the biggest parties, namely the Mauritius Labour Party and the Mouvement Militant Mauricien (MMM) would have won comfortably. 

Second, but more importantly, voters sanctioned his way of managing the country and also his excessive presidential ambitions. A good number of MMM’s partisans also sanctioned Mr. Bérenger’s “on and off” political episodes, whether with Sir Anerood Jugnauth (in a bid to form a Remake of the 2000 MSM/MMM Alliance) or with Dr. Navin Ramgoolam (Alliance de l’Unité et de la Modernité).

The main denominator with Mr.Trump’s victory and the 2014 general elections is that indeed the Alliance Lepep ( in itself a populist name) indulged in a populist campaign based on ten main promises. Among these promises, was the increase of the monthly old age pension to Rs 5,000. The clip “Vire Mam” (let us change, pal) made wonders and had negative impacts on the Labour/MMM alliance. As such, an alliance between political parties having diverse ideologies defeated the otherwise numerically superior Labour/MMM Alliance. Also the urge for change made voters prefer the Alliance Lepep.   

SUBSTANTIAL DIVERGENCE OF OPINIONS

Almost two years after the Alliance Lepep’s landslide victory, things are not that bright. Since he revealed to the media that he would step aside to make way for his son and Leader of the Mouvement Socialiste Militant (MSM) Mr. Pravind Jugnauth, the Prime Minister Sir Anerood Jugnauth seems to be keeping a low profile.

What makes matters worse is that the Prime Minister gives the impression that he is kept away from some major decisions. When the press asked him to comment on the sacking of Mr. Megh Pillay as CEO of Air Mauritius, he pleaded ignorance. But twice during the week (first at a press conference on Monday 7 November,2016 and second at a congress of the MSM at Grand Bois on Tuesday 8 November, 2016), the Minister of Finance and Economic Development Mr. Pravind Jugnauth has confirmed that he was very much aware of the situation prevailing at Air Mauritius and that the sacking of Mr. Pillay was in the pipeline. He went a step further, adding that there were substantial divergence between the Chairman of Air Mauritius Mr. Arjoon Suddhoo and the former CEO Mr. Pillay. 

Mr. Pravind Jugnauth and his father, the Prime Minister Sir Anerood Jugnauth seem not to share the same views regarding the initiative taken by the Minister of Financial Services, Good Governance and Institutional Reforms Mr. Roshi Bhadain. The latter had met the former CEO of Air Mauritius Mr. Megh Pillay and had made a statement to the media thereafter, underlining that the principles of good governance were not adhered to in the process of terminating the contract of Mr. Pillay.

While Sir Anerood Jugnauth said, in reply to a question from the media, that he finds no harm that two persons (Mr. Bhadain and Mr. Pillay) chose to meet, Mr. Pravind Jugnauth stated that he hoped that Mr. Bhadain shoulders his responsibility, regarding the comments he made to the press. In other words, it sounded like a warning to the Good Governance Minister. 

Although Mr. Pravind Jugnauth denied that there were misunderstandings between him and his father, it is becoming more and more obvious that exist at least two “ centres of power”, one operating from the Sun Trust and the other from La Caverne. 

Mr. Pravind Jugnauth also took everybody by surprise by urging his opponents to spare his close relatives while leveling critics against him. Is the pressure so unbearable? 

As the resumption of the National Assembly draws near (Parliament resumes on Tuesday 15 November, 2016), both the Government and the Opposition disunited. While the Government is swimming in a pool of contradictions, the Opposition has never be so fragmented. Even a newly founded party like the Mouvement Patriotique (MP), an offshoot of the MMM, has already experienced its first defections. Never before there were so many independent MPs (five in all) sitting at the National Assembly.

Perhaps the president of the Mouvement Patriotique is right when he stated at a congress of his party on Sunday that the population is “thirsty” for a new political party. 

Now the fundamental question is the following: from where will this new political party emerge? True it is that regularly our academia try to voice out the inner feelings of Mauritians. Recently, Mauritius Society Renewal has seen daylight, with a view to prepare “the advent of an impersonal state”. In the meantime, can Dr. Ramgoolam sneak his way to political power, riding on the wave of disillusionment created by the Alliance Lepep government?