La trajectoire du cyclone tropical Batsirai est suivie de près par la station météo de Vacoas.

« Il y a des indications que Batsirai pourrait s'incurver vers le sud et le cyclone devrait se déplacer dans une direction de l’ouest-sud-ouest à partir de ce soir. En raison de l’incertitude des modèles numériques, ce scénario est susceptible de changer. Sur cette nouvelle trajectoire, le cyclone tropical Batsirai s'approche de l'île Maurice et devrait passer au nord-nord-ouest de Grand-Baie à la mi-journée du mercredi 2 février », explique le service météo dans un communiqué émis ce lundi, sans toutefois préciser la distance de Batsirai. De ce fait, le cyclone représente une menace potentielle pour Maurice.

Soulignons qu’un avertissement de cyclone de classe 1 est en vigueur à Maurice.

Ci-dessous le communiqué :

Special Weather Bulletin

Mon, Jan 31, 2022
 

Mauritius Meteorological Services

Weather Outlook issued at 11.45 hours on Monday 31 January 2022
 

1.Synopsis
Tropical cyclone Batsirai continues to evolve in a favourable environment. The estimated central pressure
of the tropical cyclone is around 964 hPa and the estimated wind gust near the centre is estimated to be
around 200 km/h. Most weather models agree that the cyclone will intensify further to reach the Intense
Tropical Cyclone stage by tomorrow.
 

2. Evolution of the tropical cyclone over the next five days
At 10.00 hours this morning tropical cyclone Batsirai was located near latitude 16.0 degrees south
and longitude 63.6 degrees east. It is moving in a west-north-westerly direction at about 18 km/h.

There are indications that the trajectory may recurve towards the south and the cyclone is
expected to move in a west-south-west direction as from late tonight.

Due to day-to-day variation and model uncertainty, this scenario is likely to change.

On this new trajectory, tropical cyclone Batsirai is approaching Mauritius and is expected to pass to the
north-north-west of Grand Bay by mid-day on Wednesday 02 February 2022. Batsirai represents a potential
threat to Mauritius.
 

3. Weather Outlook for Mauritius
Weather at Mauritius will be mostly partly cloudy during the day with a few light showers over the high
grounds. The sky will become gradually cloudy with scattered showers as from tomorrow morning. A
marked deterioration of the weather is expected tomorrow evening.

Numerical weather Prediction models have shown significant variation in day to day run and lots of
uncertainty.

Mauritius Meteorological Services is keeping a very close watch on the evolution of this system. This
bulletin will be updated tomorrow morning.