Adopting the fixed-mix strategy

The Minister of Finance and Economic Development Mr. Vishnu Lutchmeenaraidoo has opportunely timed his comeback in the Mouvement Socialiste Militant (MSM). He has probably foreseen structural problems in the event that Mr. Pravind Jugnauth succeeds his father, Sir Anerood Jugnauth.  For some people, the polite request from Mr. Lutchmeenaraidoo to join the MSM is merely a trivial matter, not to say a simple formality. However, when seen closely, this move from the current number five of the government has wider political implications. It must be recalled that when prior to the December 2014 general elections, Sir Anerood Jugnauth appealed to Mr. Vishnu Lutchmeenaraidoo to band together with those opposing the odd Ramgoolam/ Bérenger tandem, Mr. Lutchmeenaraidoo asked for some time to reflect on it. Mr. Lutchmeenaraidoo had just resigned from the MMM, to be logical with himself because earlier he had opposed, within the MMM, an alliance between the MMM and the Labour Party. After his “temps de réflexion” (reflexion time), Mr. Lutchmeenaraidoo called for a press conference and announced his decision. He agreed to join the team led by Sir Anerood Jugnauth but there were three conditions attached to his decision. First, he would stand as candidate in constituency number 7 (Piton and Rivière du Rempart) by the side of Sir Anerood Jugnauth. Second, he would be appointed as Minister of Finance in the event of the victory of the Lepep Alliance, as promised to him earlier by Sir Anerood Jugnauth. The third one looked a bit strange but nobody found any hidden motive. Mr. Lutchmeenaraidoo insisted that he would not join any of the three political parties that makes up the Lepep Alliance, namely the MSM, the Muvman Liberater (ML) and the PMSD. To be honest, Mr. Lutchmeenaraidoo would have easily fitted in any of these three political parties given his pleasant personality. In the past, he had been close to Sir Gaëtan Duval and joining the PMSD could have been a possibility. Furthermore, Mr. Lutchmeenaraidoo has always practiced a pragmatic approach in politics and he is seen as a liberal social-democrat. Logically, he could have joined the ML as well. This party led by Mr. Ivan Collendavelloo was founded after the latter quitted the MMM as he too opposed the coalition between Mr, Bérenger and the MMM. In fact, at the launching ceremony of “Only in Mauritius”, the book written by Mr. Anil Gayan in December 2014, Mr Lutchmeenaraidoo gave the impression that he was very much at ease with other ML MPs. But then why did he choose the MSM? In fact, Mr. Lutchmeenaraidoo has undoubtedly made the best choice for several reasons. First, the MSM is the locomotive of the Lepep Alliance. Second , Mr. Lutchmeenaraidoo has been a prominent member of this party in the past. Third and most importantly, he has secured his own political future. In the event that Sir Anerood Jugnauth decides to designate his son Pravind as his own successor to the post of Prime Minister, Mr. Lutchmeenaraidoo stands a better chance to be part of the new cabinet that will be formed with Mr. Pravind Jugnauth as Prime Minister. Although it is not the first time that we come across independent ministers in Mauritius, Mr. Jayen Cuttaree and Alan Ganoo having served in this capacity after the MSM/MMM Alliance broke in 1993, it must have been hard for Mr. Lutchmeenaraidoo to operate without being a member of a political party. The Sir Anerood Jugnauth / Vishnu Lutchmeenaraidoo duo was marketed as the one that would repeat the economic miracle of the 80’s all through the December 2014 electoral campaign but after the elections, it looks as if they have been working separately, usually in a conflicting way. Joining the MSM will give Mr. Vishnu Lutchmeenaraidoo the required political leverage. Having been one of the rare remaining senior members of the party, he could bring some added value to the MSM. Everything will depend on how he and Mr. Pravind Jugnauth can work together, provided that the leader of the MSM clears his name in the MedPoint case and re-integrates the cabinet. Another event that occurred during the week could be intrinsically linked to “l’après-Sir Anerood Jugnauth” (what will happen when Sir Anerood Jugnauth quits active politics). It has to do with the party to mark the 58th birthday of Mr. Xavier-Luc Duval, the Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Tourism and External Communications. One would have expected Mr. Duval to celebrate his anniversary in one of his strongholds but strangely he preferred constituency number 7 (Piton and Rivière du Rempart). Why this constituency in particular? Does Mr. Duval also have some ambitions? The media reported that Mr. Duval was not present at three inauguration ceremonies of new hotels. Each time, it was none other than the Prime Minister Sir Anerood Jugnauth who was the chief guest. Although Mr. Duval has provided explanations to the press, still there are some doubts in the minds of some. Mr. Duval surprised many with his remarks about his satisfaction to work in a government that is not the prisoner of lobbies. Did he mean that such was the case in other governments, more precisely the ones led by Dr. Navin Ramgoolam. Mr. Duval was speaking at the ceremony organized to mark the 181 anniversary of the Abolition of Slavery on Monday. At this same ceremony, Sir Anerood Jugnauth looked composed. He was right to warn against the looming up of new forms of slavery like drugs, alcohol and gambling. It was very elegant on his part to underline that the current Leader of the Opposition, Mr. Paul Bérenger had presided over the select committee that had made recommendations to amend the Public Holidays Act so that the 1st February be a public holiday to commemorate the Abolition of Slavery. Or was it really elegance or a gentle reminder to Mr. Duval that Mr. Bérenger is still around? Who knows that a rehabilitated Mr. Pravind Jugnauth could have to rely on Mr. Paul Bérenger to form a new government, in the event that such a situation arises? Things evolve rapidly in politics, so does loyalty. Now, the leader of the ML, Mr. Ivan Collendavelloo, who is also the vice Prime Minister and Minister of Energy and Public Utilities, has once more made a counter prediction to that made by Mr. Bérenger earlier. While Mr. Bérenger vowed that 2016 will be the year of the MMM, Mr. Collendavelloo insisted that it will be the year of disaster for his former party. The editor in chief of L’Express, Mr. Raj Meetarbhan made an interesting analysis of the situation of the MMM in an editorial published on Thursday. He rightly pointed out that the MMM lacks clarity in its political action. For instance, why should the MMM talk about manipulation of the nTan report on the former BAI? Mr. Bérenger has the merit of having been the first to raise the situation of the former BAI at the National Assembly. Could he be right regarding the intention to cover up two former Ministers of Finance? In any case, the comment made by Mr. Shakeel Mohamed, one of the lawyers of Mr. Dawood Rawat and leader of the Labour parliamentary group at the National Assembly, gives us food for thought. He underlined that the nTan report mentions about Ponzi-like schemes without qualifying the BAI system as a purely Ponzi scheme. Once more, Mr. Showkutally Soodhun is in the limelight, not for his realizations as Minister of Housing and Lands but because of some controversial matters. Some accusations were leveled against him on Facebook. Following a statement he gave to the police, two persons were arrested. Now, a MSM MP Mr. Bashir Jahangeer, who happens to be the president of the Mauritius/Kuwait Friendship Society, has apparently been told by a high official of the Ministry of Health in Kuwait has told him that the recruitment of 500 Mauritian doctors in Saudi Arabia is simply not possible for various reasons. Interestingly enough, two other MSM MPs namely Mr. Mahen Jhugroo and Mr. Maneesh Gobin who were to be in the delegation to Kuwait were urged not to travel. Some procedural aspects of the mission had not been respected. The only good news this week is the decrease in the price of petroleum products. Will this impact on the national economy? Is the promised economic miracle round the corner? Has this prompted Mr. Lutchmeenaraidoo to take the decision to join the MSM to avoid that economic success be orphaned politically ?