MSM leader comes back: A new normal on the political landscape

The return of Pravind Jugnauth on the political landscape augurs well for the government following months of uncertainty and prevailing tension. According to political observers, the opposition will now have a tough time ahead while the government will have a new dynamism.

[[{"type":"media","view_mode":"media_large","fid":"18005","attributes":{"class":"media-image wp-image-30630 alignleft","typeof":"foaf:Image","style":"","width":"200","height":"201","alt":"Lindsay Rivi\u00e8re"}}]]Lindsay Rivière: “We will see the MSM pulling itself together”

Political observer Lindsay Rivière explains that the judgement in favour of Pravind Jugnauth will bring about great changes in the political scenery with higher stability within the ranks of the government level and also, the MSM party. “This will in turn impact on the performance of the government mostly at the economic level. It will bring more stability to government, to the MSM – as the major component of the government – and in terms of the balance of power between the three parties forming the Alliance Lepep. A second implication is his ambitions which had to be put on hold pending this judgement. Pravind Jugnauth now is well on course for a future primeministership. This will again impact on the political landscape. The population will now look forward to a new leadership style, new economic policies in the upcoming Budget and overall, a new national direction.” The main question which has to be answered is how and when will Pravind Jugnauth become Prime Minister, succeeding his father Sir Anerood Jugnauth at the job. How will the transition take place, when will SAJ step down and what role will the new finance minister have within government and to what extent will he able to set the government’s agenda. He believes that, while favouring his son’s access to the top job, SAJ will not be in a hurry to step down. “Many people think that Pravind Jugnauth could be prime minister within weeks or even days. I do not share this view. I believe that SAJ will first allow Pravind to strengthen his own economic team, assert his credentials and allow him to emerge and to be accepted as the new leader before stepping down. SAJ will stay on for some time. May be quite some time... as he has to deliver on a lot of promises before he goes. SAJ will go when he decides to and will not bow under pressure.” The comeback of Pravind Jugnauth, according to Lindsay Rivière, will definitely impact on the strategies of opposition parties for a number of reasons. “Firstly, we will see the MSM pulling itself together and become much more aggressive towards the Labour Party while possibly becoming more accommodating towards the MMM. This will make things harder for Navin Ramgoolam while rendering his comeback more uncertain. Secondly, the MMM will have to revise its strategies for 2019 [year of the next general elections] because it will face a new MSM leader trying to establish his own style and greater role for the MSM within the government. Hence, Pravind Jugnauth’s return will significantly change a number of parameters in the political context, both for government and opposition.” The political observer avers that it is a “make or break situation” for the new finance minister. “The upcoming budget will determine the rest of his career and give a preview of what will be his priorities as well as how in tune it is with the country’s aspirations. Pravind Jugnauth has to quickly prepare the conditions for an MSM victory in 2019 or else, the Labour Party will be back... and back with a vengeance. The coming months are crucial to his ambitions.”

[[{"type":"media","view_mode":"media_large","fid":"18007","attributes":{"class":"media-image wp-image-30632 alignleft","typeof":"foaf:Image","style":"","width":"200","height":"218","alt":"Tania Diolle"}}]]Tania Diolle: “Stability should be prevailing within government”

Lecturer in Political Science at the University of Mauritius, Tania Diolle reveals that the political come back of Pravind Jugnauth will have an impact on the MSM. “There will be a new zeal within the party. There will be fewer tiffs among the members especially now that leader’s seat is no more potentially vacant. Stability should also be prevailing within government if he ascertains his leadership efficiently. We can ignore the fact that the MSM has been the backbone of the Alliance Lepep given that it is the majority party. With the Supreme Court’s ruling in favour of Pravind Jugnauth, the MSM should have a stronger bargaining power within the Alliance.” However, at this stage, we still don’t know if the DPP will appeal against this decision at the Privy Council. The return of Pravind Jugnauth should also impact on the prospects of Navin Ramgoolam. “We have witnessed the rise of Navin Ramgoolam because of prevailing uncertainties within the MSM. Now that the uncertainty regarding the leadership of Pravind Jugnauth is over, this will impact on Ramgoolam’s scopes for a political return.” She further explains that the finance minister has no room for error now. “Unfortunately, Pravind Jugnauth has to face various issues. The past two years have been chaotic and the lack of leadership within the government impacted several sectors. All eyes are on him. He faces a huge challenge and has to impose his leadership. He cannot make mistakes at this stage of our country’s history,” she concludes.

[[{"type":"media","view_mode":"media_large","fid":"18006","attributes":{"class":"media-image wp-image-30631 alignleft","typeof":"foaf:Image","style":"","width":"243","height":"182","alt":"Dr. Shafick Osman"}}]]Dr. Shafick Osman, expert in geopolitics: “The opposition will definitely suffer”

According to the expert in geopolitics Shaffick Osman, the return of Pravind Jugnauth to Cabinet is extremely important for the government and the MSM. “Things have gone in many different and opposing ways for the Lepep government over the past few months. The main reason being that the leader of major party within the alliance being out of government! Now that things are back to normal, we should expect a new way forward. Together with Xavier Luc Duval and Ivan Collendavelloo, the leaders of the two other parties, but also with the OPR, which is part of the ruling coalition,” he says. Shafick Osman trusts that this is an opportunity for Pravind Jugnauth to bring back a sense of order within his party and especially, to re-brand the government and push it forward. “The opposition will definitely suffer from this positive outcome of the legal battle and from the newly found momentum of the Lepep government. I fear that both the MMM and the Labour Party will have to re-think their strategies to come back to power, as they should have already done following their historical defeat in December 2014. From now on, Pravind Jugnauth will have to shoulder huge responsibilities and devise innovative strategies for his party, for the government’s sustainability and for the people of Mauritius.”